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Moving from the Treasury, which reigns in spending, to the Department for Work and Pensions, which spends more than any other department, is...

Monday, 19 October 2015

GAD paper on the Triple Lock

This paper, "Triple Lock" increases to state pension - Background, effects, and risks was prepared by the Government Actuary's Department and published on its website on Friday 9 October 2015. Within a very short time it was taken down and replaced with a page saying it had been published in error. Later the Treasury said it was a 'discussion paper' which had been uploaded by the IT department by mistake.

Its finding that the triple lock cost £6 billion in 2015/16 and would eventually take nearly a quarter of the National Insurance Fund will be controversial. As will the implicit conclusion that the triple lock is unsustainable in the long-term. That is a view which I understand the Government Actuary himself holds. 

Personally I think the triple lock will last for this Parliament but not beyond. How pensions will be uprated after that will be a major political issue at a time when benefits for younger age groups will have been frozen for four years and those for others linked to CPI - which is currently around zero - or cut sharply.

The paper is published here in the interests of open government. 

19 October 2015
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